Kevin Drum notes an effort by Californian delegations to move forward the state primary just two weeks after New Hampshire.
The change would affect only the Presidential Primary. The fuller slate of initiatives and State Office Primaries wouldn’t occur until the usual time. This means lower turn out for both events.
I reckon low turnout favors high name recognition, media backed candidates like John McCain vs. lower key, grassrootsy candidates like Mike Huckabee.
On the Democratic front, Drum thinks the change favors Hillary (now that she is officially running):
Not only is she pretty popular among the fundraising set here, but she’s one of the few candidates with enough money to seriously contest California and still run decent campaigns in the other early states.
If this change coincides with attempts by other large states like Florida to make similar changes then we will see candidates who forgo the early, small-state primaries to focus on the larger states.
Many candidates who have run decent large state TV campaigns succumb to lousy retail politicking in Iowa or New Hampshire.
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