Via Calpundit we learn about an Ohio risk assessor who claims to have proven that the probability for the existence of God stands at about 67%.
Dr. Stephen Unwin used Bayes’ Theorem to calculate the conditional probability of God’s existence. Bayes’ theorem adjusts a given probability in the face of observed evidence. Dr. Unwin plugged in a prior probabilty for God’s existence along with different evidence for and against to make his calculations.
Factors that were considered included recognition of goodness, which Dr Unwin said makes the existence of God more likely, countered by things like the existence of natural evil - including earthquakes and cancer.
Dr. Unwin is really just an extreme Bayesian. They believe that Bayes’ Theorem can be used to calculate a probability for anything. Interestingly, Bayes never seemed to hold this view.
The largest issue with the Bayesian worldview is how to justify prior probabilties. 50% might seem like a reasonable assumption to begin Dr. Unwin’s calculations, but justfying that number is difficult. Dr. Unwin also must justify the probabilties he gives to his evidence. What probability do you give Cancer? The answer will be fairly arbitrary.
Moreover, deciding what counts as evidence for and against proof God’s existence is a sticky point. Why should an earthquake be proof against God? Pre-Modern peoples would probably consider the opposite the case.
Maybe Dr. Unwin’s calculation is most useful deciding the probability with which a person holding a certain belief system ought to believe in God. Then again, we have merely replaced a useless, arbitrary probabilty with a different, equally uselss arbtrary probabilty.
Altogether, Dr. Unwin’s endeavor is embarassing for everyone (I guess that category includes myself now) involved.
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