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This graph, taken from a New York Times article on the uninsured, reveals some important dynamics of the upcoming 2004 Presidential Campaign.

We are warned time and again that Universal Coverage will undermine the present system. Costs and waiting lists will stretch into the infinities. Quality of care will fall the other direction. Only the free market can properly maintain the health of a properly capitalist nation.

Yet all this and more is happening right now under our present system. HMO’s have failed to subdue rising costs. Business can no longer afford full coverage for their employees. Employees fear losing the coverage they do have.

Republicans and the insurance industry succeeded in killing President Clinton’s health care plan in 1992. Al Gore failed to make Medicare coverage of prescription drugs resonate with voters in 2000. The Patients’ Bill of Rights failed as an effective political gimmick.

Yet, the Republican position on healthcare is remains unpopular. That 15% of our citizenry live without health insurance is a travesty and the American people know it to be so. Whichever Democratic wins the nomination ought to find that number an effective battering ram against Bush’s defenses.

Another number that jumps out of this graph is 32.4%, the percentage of uninsured among the Hispanic population. This percentage is much larger than any other major ethnic group. Both parties have been feverishly courting the growing Hispanic vote. Hispanic voters could mean the difference in states like New Mexico, or Florida. That’s a balance Gore wishes he had tipped.

More, we see some justification of Howard Dean’s remarks about Southern whites. A properly argued and well represented health care plan could help win part of that 17.5% uninsured in the South.

One number that might appear unhelpful to Democrats is the 33.4% uninsured among the foriegn born compared to 12.8% among native born Americans. Immigrants vote at lower levels than the general population, and the perception that insurance will disproportionatly benefit immigrants would be politically damaging. However, taking the total minus natives (15.2% - 12.8%) means only 2.8% of the total uninsured are immigrants, a relatively small percentage. This reveals that the problem is a persistent one, not the artifact of immigrants who will be saved by old time social mobility.

The level of uninsured in our society is not a problem the market can solve. Its not a problem the Republicans are willing to solve. That the Democratic party is willing to fight on this issue could very well be what carries a Democrat into the White House next year.

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